Less Than a Week To Go: How is the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Shaping Up?
F R E D F R I E D M A N
P O L I T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
America is going through one of its periodical fits of cultural distemper. The leadup to next week’s Presidential election has turned out to be an orgy of violent rhetoric, with threats from both sides to take matters into their own hands if they do not like the outcome. Never has the country been more divided and divested of any degree of civility and respect for the opinions of the other side. Much of the discord comes from the Left, which believes that Trump is a literal dictator who will put opponents in jail or otherwise harass them if he wins. The Left, with its over-the-top oratory and its provocative actions, has fanned the flames of nastiness and division like never before in recent times — burning yard signs, assaulting passersby aligned with Trump, setting fires on lawns, two assassination attempts, assaults on Jews by Muslims, chaos on college campuses by anti-Semites, and more. Despite all this, Trump seems poised to win, because Harris is an airhead who cannot connect with ordinary people on the crucial cultural issues of the day — issues that will decide in which direction people will cast their votes.
Trump rallies at Madison Square Garden in New York City on 27 October 2024. | Photo: Agencies
Middle America does not care much for a party that defunds the police, opposes fracking, turns a blind eye to illegal immigration, lauds drag queens in elementary schools, has plans to ban gasoline cars, offends the sensitivities of religious people who oppose abortion and gay marriage, and more. The Democrats’ retrograde agenda is even pushing a fair amount of traditional Democrats towards a Republican party that espouses the traditional values deeply vested in American history, such as hard work, optimism about the future, risk taking, stable families and personal responsibility.
Middle America does not care much for a party that defunds the police, opposes fracking, turns a blind eye to illegal immigration, lauds drag queens in elementary schools, has plans to ban gasoline cars, offends the sensitivities of religious people who oppose abortion and gay marriage, and more.
This new coalition for the Republicans consists of a congeries of groups that have rejected the Democrats’ distorted vision of what America can — and should — be. The new mosaic includes Latinos, Muslims, Asians, union workers — and, surprisingly, many Blacks, traditionally some of the most dedicated Democrat voters. The recent October 27th rally at Madison Square Garden revealed a buoyancy of hope and a renewed sense of patriotism that Americans have not witnessed for a number of years. While this may or may not be enough to carry Trump and his party over the finish line, recent polls indicate that he is ahead in every swing state; and Harris has pulled her advertising in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, signaling that the campaign does not believe she can win there. Many pundits, even in her own party, are worried that she’s running a subpar campaign — speaking in word salads and failing to connect emotionally with the voters, and that she comes across as inauthentic and as refusing to define exactly who she is and what she will do if elected.
Many pundits, even in her own party, are worried that she’s running a subpar campaign — speaking in word salads and failing to connect emotionally with the voters, and that she comes across as inauthentic and as refusing to define exactly who she is and what she will do if elected.
One thing is for sure: whoever does end up winning the election will generate strong opposition — and potential violence — from the other side. At the very least, each side is poised to sue if the results are not to its liking. This all but guarantees a long and protracted struggle before the final outcome of the election is determined — more evidence that the nation is suffering from a grievous wound that will take many years to heal, if it heals at all.
Presidential candidate Kamala Harris at her Houston rally on 25 October 2024. | Photo: Agencies
What’s Going on in The Swing States?
The seven states that are the key to Trump’s victory seem to be leaning in his direction, although some recent polls indicate otherwise. North Carolina and Nevada are probably lost to Harris at this point, attested to by the fact that she has pulled her advertising from them. Jon Ralston, a journalist from Las Vegas, said that Harris is “done in Nevada” — and he’s a Democrat. The Harris campaign has also begun to pull ads from Arizona, choosing instead to focus on Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where the polls indicate that the race is close and the expected outcome is fluctuating. Odds-makers currently give Trump a 66% chance of winning, and perhaps even dragging some Senate candidates along with him, and flipping some state legislatures. Both sides are spending billions to “get out the vote”, focusing heavily on registering new voters and on massive online advertising. The average citizen still perceives the race as close, and many think that unexpected events may occur in the last week before Election Day. Whatever the outcome, this election is shaping up to be one of the most interesting — and consequential — in American history.
Fred Friedman is a seasoned political analyst who has written for various publications, including Crisis Magazine, The World And I and The Brooklyn View. In the 1980’s, Friedman was a speechwriter for the Reagan administration, focusing on education policy.
Fred Friedman is the Your Jerusalem U.S. Political Correspondent. He may be contacted at fredwriter1961@optimum.net.
